Earnings Beat: Vaccitech plc Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Vaccitech plc (NASDAQ:VACC), an important milestone in the company’s journey to build a stronger business. In addition to smashing expectations with revenues of US$17m, Vaccitech delivered a surprise statutory profit of US$0.41 per share, a notable improvement compared to analyst expectations of a loss. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

NasdaqGM:VACC Earnings and Revenue Growth August 13th 2022

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Vaccitech’s four analysts is for revenues of US$45.7m in 2022, which would reflect a major 42% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.082 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$26.1m and US$0.90 per share in losses. So there’s been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$19.50, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. There’s another way to think about price targets though, and that’s to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ​​Vaccitech at US$23.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Vaccitech’s revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 103% annualized growth rate until the end of 2022 being well below the historical 733% growth over the last year. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 15% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Vaccitech is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$19.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Vaccitech going out to 2024, and you can see them for free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Vaccitech is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis and 2 of those shouldn’t be ignored…

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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